Crew Dragon will fly into orbit on Saturday. If the weather does not thwart SpaceX and NASA again

Yesterday at 22:33 from Cape Canaveral in Florida the first manned flight was to set off the Crew Dragon ship created by SpaceX. Unfortunately, the weather had completely different plans.

Weather conditions in Florida have been the biggest threat to the planned flight for several days. Three days before take-off, the chances of flying were estimated at 40%. On the start day, the forecasts changed from hour to hour. Despite this, astronauts carried out the entire procedure of preparation for take-off. During the day heavy rain first appeared, then it only brightened so that in a moment there would be a threat associated with tornadoes, which once again turned into rain.

The flight control center was constantly analyzing the weather situation, which changed from minute to minute. Finally, 17 minutes before the start, the decision was made to postpone the flight to Saturday. According to the latest information, the decision to cancel was taken because of the risk of lightning strikes during the climb.

It's not just Florida weather that affects the SpaceX Dragon Crew flight.

Here it is worth noting that during take-off not only the weather in the immediate vicinity of the launch platform matters, but also along the entire path that the rocket and the ship cover over the Earth's surface. Although it is usually not visible from the starting point, the rocket only rises vertically upwards at the beginning, but at some point after the start it starts to move relative to the Earth's surface.

It is enough to mention here that the rocket, scheduled for launch at 10:33 pm, would be flying over Europe 20 minutes later (hence our forecasts of where it will be seen from ). And it was the weather along the path that was so bad and dangerous that it was decided to give up the start.

This is a very sensible decision on the part of NASA and SpaceX.

After all, we were dealing with a manned flight, not a transport flight. Crew loss during take-off is a completely different kind of responsibility from the loss carried into orbit of the satellite.

What's more, the Demo-2 mission is a unique flight in many respects.

This is the first manned flight carried out by a private company.
This is the first manned flight carried out with a completely new spacecraft.
This is the first manned flight test of a new ship in over 40 years.
This is the first manned flight from the US since canceling the shuttle program 9 years ago.

First of all, risk minimization

After all, even in favorable conditions the risk associated with this flight is higher than average. During this flight, many elements will only be checked, so the additional risk associated with adverse weather had to be minimized as much as possible.

The next start is scheduled for 21:22 Polish time on Saturday. For now, the weather forecasts are not optimistic, but on the other hand it is Florida and the weather conditions are constantly changing. It remains therefore to keep our fingers crossed.

Crew Dragon will fly into orbit on Saturday. If the weather does not thwart SpaceX and NASA again

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