80% population will get coronavirus if we don t isolate ourselves

Researchers at Imperial College London have analyzed data on infection and death caused by COVID-19 in China. Their results differ from previous estimates. How will the situation develop in our country?

- This study provides the necessary estimates on the percentage of people requiring hospitalization, which when applied to the UK population has allowed us to determine how many people will need access to NHS [British Health Service] services - says prof. Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London, co-author of the study.

English researchers warn that the virus can infect 50 to 80 percent. global population if we don't isolate ourselves at home. If this happened, no country has such an extensive health service to be able to provide hospitalization for all people in need of constant medical care or connection to a respirator.

COVID-19 mortality

After analyzing data from 44.6 thous. cases of coronavirus infection in China, Ferguson and other researchers say they were able to determine a much more real coronavirus mortality rate, which up to now was 2 to 8 percent according to earlier estimates, and for people over 80 from 8 to 36 percent

However, data analyzed by the British show that COVID-19 mortality is 1.38 percent. in all age groups of patients. It is worth noting here that all children under 10 years of age (416 people) included in this statistics survived the disease without major problems. When it comes to mortality in people over 80, the mortality rate was 13.4 percent. (208 deaths in 1408 cases).

The researchers point out that data on mortality, based on the analysis of these 44.6 thousand. cases can still be overstated. If we take into account the average age of the entire population on Earth, the COVID-19 mortality can be approximately 0.66 percent in real terms.

On the one hand, this is very good news, on the other, I have to remind you here that Ferguson's team estimates that coronavirus can infect up to 80 percent. people inhabiting our planet, so even 0.66 percent means the death of almost 50 million people.

Regarding prognosis regarding hospitalization, the study was divided according to the age groups below. At each we will find the estimated percentage people from the following range who will require 24/7 medical attention:

  • 10-19 years - 0.04 percent
  • 20-29 years - 1.0 percent
  • 30-39 years - 3.4 percent
  • 40-49 years - 4.3 percent
  • 50-59 years - 8.2 percent
  • 70-79 years - 16.6 percent
  • 60-69 years old - 11.8 percent
  • 70-79 years - 16.6 percent

The average hospital stay for a person with COVID-19 is 22.6 days.

That is why we must continue to isolate ourselves

It is obviously about flattening the infection curve. As long as the world has neither a vaccine nor an effective cure for coronavirus, hospitalized patients can only be treated symptomatically and connected to respirators, which - according to our minister of health - we have 10 thousand. If in Poland seriously ill patients start to arrive faster, we will run out of ICU places and then we will have a serious problem.

For now, however, isolating ourselves pretty well. The analysis made by ExMetrix, whose modeling platform is largely based on the capabilities of machine learning algorithms, shows that the maximum number of coronavirus infected in our country will be 9,000 and that it will happen around April 20. Then this number is about to start falling.

- Our models predict a milder epidemic than western and southern Europe. For this to really happen, a social effort is needed to comply with the introduced restrictions and limitations, the more so because the ExMetrix models forecast that we are entering a decisive phase of the epidemic. - says Zbigniew Łukoś , president of ExMetrix.

According to the ExMetrix model, the fastest growth of the infected is to take place from March 28 to April 8. Then the number of infected will grow slightly more slowly to slow down noticeably around April 15.

I am also calling for self-discipline for the next few weeks, after which it should be relatively better. For now, however, let us sit responsibly in homes and do not leave them without need.



80% population will get coronavirus if we don't isolate ourselves

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