You probably know this anecdote, that if we start boiling water with a frog inside, then this one will not realize that it will cook soon and boil? Well, with people and their approach to climate change is almost identical.
If tomorrow, in the largest cities in the world, heat killed half a million people, we would start to take the matter seriously. You know, avatar change on Facebook, mass marches, candles and infinite appeals to politicians, so that they finally start to embrace this whole climate. Well, but because the planet's ecosystem is huge (actually the largest in the world) and a very complicated mechanism, disasters generally need some time to develop. But as soon as they develop ...
Yes, it will be about the next report about the end of the world
And he was not removed from a holy book. This time we are talking about a report by David Spratt and Ian Dunlop. This is a very interesting duet of scientists. Spratt is director of research at the Breaktrough National Center for Climate Restoration , and Dunlop has in the past worked in very high positions in the mining industry. Both men in their joint work compiled earlier research on climate change and are already seriously watching the scenario in which the human species ... begins to die out.
In their opinion, it will look something like this:
- 2020 - 2030: Politicians are delaying the introduction of the necessary regulations, we are still trading in CO2 limits happily, extracting more and more fossil fuels. In 2030 there is a peak of emission, which guarantees us an increase in the average temperature on Earth by 3 degrees Celsius to 2,100. The concentration of carbon dioxide reaches 437 ppm - the last time so high was 20 million years ago. By the way: 2019, the CO2 concentration is already 415 ppm, and we are definitely going for this record. The average temperature jumps at this point by 1.6 degrees C.
- 2030 - 2050: We are slowly beginning to realize that it is starting to get a little hot and we are starting to do something. Emissions of greenhouse gases are gradually decreasing - by 2100 they will fall by about 80% (compared to 2010). Heating up the planet will slow down a little, but by 2050, we will already reach an average temperature increase of 3 degrees C. Emissions are decreasing, but we woke up a bit late and caused some effects of the snowball. Desertification, anaerobic zones etc.
- 2050: In about 31 years we will realize that the loss of ice from the entire western part of Antarctica, the increasingly frequent melting of the Arctic waters, the re-greening of Greenland and the increasingly frequent droughts of Amazonian forests were inevitable after exceeding 2.5 st. C.
It is not the end. Sea level up to 2050 rises by 0.5 m. By 2100, this value is likely to increase to 2-3 m. These are very cautious estimates - in the history of our planet we already had periods in which the sea grew by 25 m Of course, the sea will be increasingly larger plastic dumps, which thanks to the continuous grinding by sea currents goes to our food and the air we breathe.
On land it will get really hot. 35 percent land on Earth and - hence - about 55 percent. Our global population will be exposed to deadly temperature levels for about 20 days a year. And not just temperature. Changes or total stopping of key sea currents will cause that we will have to commune with increasingly frequent and more violent manifestations of weather. Droughts, mass forest fires, difficult access to drinking water (the Himalayas and the Andes will lose a lot of their stocks of frozen water).
Many ecosystems (nomen omen) will evaporate, and Spratt and Dunlop predict that countries that do not have the right technology (for example, access to air-conditioned rooms) will start to record the mortality records of their citizens. Two billion people will have problems with obtaining drinking water. The food will also be bad, because many of the current agricultural areas will turn into deserts. It sounds like a perfect prequel to some post-apocalyptic series with lots of wars between people.
This scenario seems quite real
Looking at our current activities, the above scenario is currently being implemented perfectly. For now, we are more busy discussing whether it is really our fault and whether something is really wrong. After all, it is normal that it is warmer once, and once it is colder. And that's how it all depends on the Sun, so you do not have to worry about it.
Quite well documented changes in the terrestrial climate by science have already become a matter of political dispute. I even understand it. Nobody wants to give up their comfortable lifestyle. Extreme and immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and a change in the style of the current - quite a one-off in its assumption - production of goods would be a disaster for the global economy.
And we can not afford it. For the calming of this more terrified (and perhaps more conscious) part of society, from time to time there is a happening in the style of McDonald's for bees , or empty shelves in Tesco, and for the time being this is somehow happening. Meanwhile, the world of science is more and more seriously analyzing scenarios in the style of the above, and we are still the best at questioning them or tactless not paying attention to them. I wonder what it looks like in a frog in a pot.
Today's heat outside the window is a picchu compared to the warming scenario created by scientists